Politics cause an increase in cancer deaths
Are we experiencing a setback in the on-going war on cancer? Statistically, at least, the answer appears to be “yes.” After a two-year downturn in U.S. cancer deaths, an Associated Press story relates that, according to an American Cancer Society report, the number of cancer deaths rose by upwards of 5,000 in 2005.
My take on this story? Beware of reporters bearing numbers – especially in an election year.
While the cancer rate has been “dropping” since 1990 – if you would go so far to call a one-percent decline per year (yes – one percent) as an actual “decline.” Of course, if you look at the overall numbers, cancer deaths are, in fact rising, because of the annual increase in population.
Do you follow? No? Well, I’m not surprised, because there are an awful lot of numbers being tossed about in this story by Mike Strobbe, the medical writer of the Associated Press. Strobbe points out that cancer deaths had continued to drop at a lower rate since the “dramatic” fall of two-percent per year in both 2003 and 2004 – which was the first decline in the total number of cancer deaths since 1930.
The article goes on to question the possible reasons for this spike in cancer deaths, and sites one doctor who speculates that cancer screenings no longer have as big as an effect as they did a few years ago. Farther down in the story, Strobbe says that unnamed cancer society “officials” have “voiced concern that cancer deaths may increase as Americans lose health insurance coverage and get fewer screenings.”
Huh? Funny, I didn’t know that great numbers of Americans have been losing their health care coverage at such a stunning rate that it’s actually impacted cancer screenings and caused a possible rise in the number of cancer deaths. That’s probably because it’s just not true.
I am relatively sure how Mr. Strobbe will be voting this November, and I can tell you that it’s not for John McCain. We’re in the election season, folks, and this seemingly harmless little article about the war on cancer says more about the rise of agenda-driven reportage than the rise on cancer deaths.
All of this has me steamed. As I’ve said before, you have to keep an eye on the numbers – whether it comes to money or research. Because, as British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli famously said, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” And this article by Mike Strobbe is a perfect example.
Here in this election year, we’re all familiar with phrase “margin of error.” When it comes to political polling, this “margin” is variously defined as “plus or minus” anywhere from two to four percent. One percent? It’s statistically a nonexistent number and not even within the “margin of error.” And yet Mike Strobbe thought that a “report” by the American Cancer Society claimed a “rise” in cancer deaths of 5,400 was worthy of a news report.
Huh?
Don’t get me wrong: any cancer death is sad, and I’m not minimizing the tragedy of these deaths, especially considering the massive effect they likely had within the individual families of the deceased. But when you consider that we are a country of more than 300 million people, it’s hard to really consider that 5,400 more deaths is an upward trend. It’s statistically insignificant when you talk about the overall war on cancer. The fact that we are measuring our “gains” in the battle against cancer – the greatest plague on mankind, in my opinion – in increments of one and two percent declines per year means that we’re merely holding our own. We’re certainly not winning.
The point is, Strobbe’s article doesn’t really say much of anything. Any sane person knows that when cancer deaths are counted in percentages per 100,000 people, 5,400 doesn’t represent anything more than a typical statistical fluctuation. A trend? No way.
But it was just enough of a nugget of a story that it allowed Strobbe to write 494 little words that don’t really draw much of a conclusion-but that could be topped by a big, fat downer of a headline – U.S. CANCER DEATHS ROSE BY 5,400 IN 2005 – in bold, inky black. And let’s face it – that’s all most people would read of the story. And this headline is all the agenda-driven newspapers need.
When you tie this sad headline together with other similar ones, the typical American will get the impression that, if cancer deaths are on the rise, things aren’t doing so well with the American healthcare system. And starts to think, “gee that nice fella Mr. Obama has said he’d finally do something about that health care system maybe I should vote for him.”
Conspiracy theory? Maybe. But I can’t think of any other reason to slap together such a non-news story than the one Mr. Strobbe put out on the AP wire. Like I said – it’s an election year, and everyone – EVERYONE – is working an angle. So you might want to keep that jaded eye that I’ve been helping you polish handy whenever you’re reading the paper from now until November. And remember, if you want to read the truth, you know where to find me.
